2008 Working Papers

The Public Interest and State Policies Affecting Academic Research in California
By William Zumeta

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-01 (1.5 MB PDF)

Abstract: This paper, part of a forthcoming comparative volume on “The Public Interest and the Academic Research Enterprise,” edited by David Dill (University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill) and Frans Van Vught (European Commission and University of Twente, the Netherlands), analyzes public policies toward academic research in the U.S. state of California. Taking a broad view of state research policies, it first surveys the history and recent trends in the state’s support of the research and graduate education missions of the University of California, identifying serious problems and emerging challenges plaguing the state’s prospects to sustain UC’s historic elite quality in these areas, which underpins the state’s research effort. Then, much of the paper is devoted to a survey and analysis of the political economy of California’s numerous state funded research programs, both those based at the University of California and the increasingly important ones (most notably the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine or CIRM) independent of UC. Broadly, the conclusion is that even a state as large and wealthy as California is poorly situated to develop coherent and independent research policies as states lack the necessary independent brokering institutions analogous to the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health at the federal level, and policymakers have fewer buffers against political influences. Moreover, in California particularly the populist, highly polarized and media-influenced political culture makes coherent state policymaking for research a major challenge. Finally, California policymakers have done little to build institutional expertise in this area in either the executive or legislative branch.

Using Private Demand Studies to Calculate Socially-Optimal Vaccine Subsidies in Developing Countries
By Joseph Cook, Marc Jeuland, Brian Maskery, Donald Lauria, Dipika Sur, John Clemens, and Dale Whittington

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-02 (535 KB PDF)

Supplementary Information for Working Paper No. 2008-02 (623 KB PDF)

Abstract: Although it is well-known that vaccines against many infectious diseases confer positive economic externalities via indirect protection, analysts have typically ignored possible herd protection effects in policy analyses of vaccination programs. This paper develops a transparent, accessible economic framework for assessing the private and social economic benefits of vaccination, and employs economic data from stated preference studies (e.g., contingent valuation and choice modeling) to demonstrate socially-optimal policies, starting with a depiction of Pigouvian subsidies applied to herd protection from vaccination programs. Our depictions of marginal social benefits highlight some counter-intuitive implications of herd protection not commonly observed in the applied policy literature. We illustrate the approach using economic and epidemiological data from two neighborhoods in Kolkata, India, and recent data on the indirect effects of cholera vaccination in Matlab, Bangladesh. We fit a simple mathematical model of how protection changes with vaccine coverage, and use new data on costs and private demand for cholera vaccines in Kolkata, India to approximate the optimal Pigouvian subsidy. We find that, if the optimal subsidy is unknown, selling vaccines at full marginal cost may, under some circumstances, be a preferable second-best option to providing them for free.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Typhoid Vi Vaccination Programs: Calculations for Four Urban Sites in Four Asian Countries
By Joseph Cook, Marc Jeuland, Dale Whittington, Chirstin Poulous, John Clemens, Dipkia Sur, Dang Duc Anh, Magdarina Agtini, Zulfiqar Bhutta, and the Domie Typhoid Economics Study Group

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-03 (500 KB PDF)

Abstract: The burden of typhoid fever remains high in impoverished settings and increasing antibiotic resistance is making treatment costly. One strategy for reducing the typhoid morbidity and mortality is vaccination with the Vi polysaccharide vaccine. We use a wealth of new economic and epidemiological data to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Vi vaccination against typhoid in sites in four Asian cities: Kolkata (India), Karachi (Pakistan), N. Jakarta (Indonesia), Hue (Vietnam). We estimate that a vaccination program targeting all children (2-14) would cost US$189, US$232, and US$712 per DALY averted in Kolkata, Karachi, and N. Jakarta. These programs would be considered “very cost-effective” under a wide range of assumptions. Community-based vaccination programs that also target adults in Kolkata and Jakarta are less cost-effective because incidence is lower in adults than children, but are also likely to be “very cost-effective”. Any type of program in Hue, Vietnam would not be cost effective (US$3,924 per DALY averted for a program targeting children 5-14yrs old) because of the low typhoid incidence there. Although the study does not address the important question of whether the social economic benefits of vaccination exceed the social costs, Vi vaccination programs targeting children in the sites in Kolkata, Karachi and N. Jakarta look to be attractive investments. They would be among the better half of interventions for Asia compiled by the Disease Control Priorities Project, although health policymakers will want to carefully compare the cost effectiveness of Vi vaccination with other public health priorities.

What Matters for Excellence in Ph.D. Programs? Latent Constructs of Doctoral Program Quality Used by Early Career Social Scientests
By William Zumeta, Emory Morrison, Elizabeth Rudd, WZ, Maresi Nerad

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-04 (572 KB PDF)

Abstract: Latent class analysis reveals that social scientists evaluate the quality of their Ph.D. program with one of two approaches. Graduates of elite programs rely heavily on perceptions of the program's academic rigor; others use perceptions of diverse factors including program support and socialization. Faculty tend to use the latter approach.

How Much Higher Education Does the Nation Need?
By William Zumeta

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-05 (788 KB PDF)

In this paper, first, we assess the difference between societal need for educated people and market demand for them, concluding that, while projected market demand is a logical lower bound estimate of societal needs, needs can emerge and/or be newly articulated in the policymaking process that would not be projected using standard assumptions. We make the case that, over the relevant planning horizon, such needs for educated people are more likely to exceed trend-based projections than to undershoot them. We next explore the limits of precise "manpower forecasting" of demand and supply, which has not proved very successful in the past and seems unlikely to be any more accurate now given the rapidity of change-much of it change that cannot realistically be foreseen with precision far in advance-in economies and societies today. Then, we delve into some of the key evidence and analytic issues on both the demand and supply sides of this need-for-higher-education question a bit more, paying particular attention to the relevant economic frameworks and evidence, especially trends in labor market demand for educated people as reflected in their market earnings.

Ethical Benefit Cost Analysis as Art and Science: Ten Rules for Benefit-Cost Analysis
By Richard O. Zerbe

Evans School Working Paper No. 2008-06 (520 KB PDF)

Abstract: Modern benefit-cost analysis has been mischaracterized by a wide spectrum of non-practitioner, mainly legal critics. Economists and users or producers of BCA in the past have chosen to remain unaware of the need to make the foundation of benefit-cost analysis clear. Yet economists have come to realize or been forced by practicality (e.g. in addressing issues of charity, and through environmental evaluation and contingent valuation where moral sentiments play a role), to see that a more inclusive view of BCA allows a wider scope for evaluations, and a more solid framework for its use. As part of the process of making the basis for BCA clearer and more useful, this article begins to develop rules and standards of practice. In doing this it shows that BCA is not a mechanical exercise but rather an art form involving nuanced judgment about what information is most useful for public policy. In introducing ethical BCA as an art form, most criticisms of BCA are obviated. The criticisms are shown to be governed by one or more of the rules for ethical BCA introduced here.